Redfin Report: New-Home Supply Down 1% in the Second Quarter, the Biggest Decline in 6 Years
The market for new-construction homes is moderating as builders adjust their inventory to meet demand for more affordable homes
SEATTLE, Aug. 13, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- (NASDAQ: RDFN) -- Sale prices for newly built homes dropped 0.5 percent year over year to a median of $372,900 in the second quarter of 2019, according to a new report from Redfin (www.redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
Prices for new homes have remained largely unchanged throughout the first half of this year after seven straight years of increases. Meanwhile, the median sale price for existing homes rose 3.2 percent in the second quarter to $309,700, continuing a seven-year trend of increasing prices.
Sales of new homes increased by 0.8 percent annually in the second quarter, reversing the trend seen in the previous two quarters, when new-home sales dropped. Existing home sales, which were down 0.7 percent in the second quarter, have followed a similar pattern, though sales for existing homes have yet to reverse into positive territory.
Meanwhile, supply of new homes was down 1 percent, the biggest annual decline since the first quarter of 2013. Supply of existing homes was up 1.1 percent in the second quarter, the fourth consecutive quarter of increases.
The small price decline for new homes in the second quarter, along with a 0.7 percent year-over-year decrease in new listings and a 3.4 percent annual drop in building permits, signals that the new-home market remained soft in the second quarter.
"The moderation we're seeing in new-home prices was expected and follows right along with our observation late last year that builders were finally shifting their focus toward offering smaller, more affordable homes," said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. "While this change was a clear and long-needed response to homebuyer demand and tastes amid an affordability crisis and a softening market, it also means that builders are now focused on homes that are less profitable for them. As builders continue to adjust to a less favorable market, along with rising tariffs for building materials and a labor shortage, I expect to see new-home inventory stay low overall. But low mortgage rates and more affordable prices for new homes mean sales could strengthen a bit in the coming months."
Of the 10 metros with the highest sales volume, new-home prices were down in half and up in the other half. In Houston, the metro with the most new-home sales in the second quarter, the median sale price dropped 1.5 percent year over year to $297,978. Sale prices were also down in Austin (-3.6%; $308,429) and Tampa (-4%; $279,965). In Atlanta, the metro with the second-most new homes sold, prices were up 5.7 percent annually to $309,900. Prices were up 1.3 percent to $364,500 in Dallas and up 4 percent to $355,000 in Nashville.
Although the nationwide dip in new-home prices in the second quarter was small, there were bigger declines in expensive markets on both coasts. San Jose, one of the most costly metros in the country, recorded a 26.6 percent year-over-year decline in new-home sale prices, the biggest drop of any major U.S. metro tracked by Redfin. It was followed by a trio of sunny coastal metros: West Palm Beach (-16.7%), Honolulu (-13.6%) and Miami (-13.5%). San Diego (-12.5%) and Los Angeles (-8.7%) are also among the 10 metros with the biggest declines in new-home sale prices. San Jose and Los Angeles were also two of just six of the largest 85 metro areas Redfin tracks that saw year-over-year declines in their overall median sale prices in June.
"When there's a shift in the market, new construction is always one of the first categories to take a hit," said San Jose Redfin agent Kristen Nowack. "In the San Jose area, overall prices are falling and there are plenty of homes for sale right now, which means buyers may be less likely to pay a premium for new construction. And when one builder starts dropping prices in response to the market, competitors follow suit, which could lead to overall lower prices."
The places where prices for new homes rose most are mostly less expensive metros such as Greensboro, South Carolina (where prices rose 26.8% year over year), El Paso (12.8%) and Baton Rouge (10.4%).
To read the full report, including additional metro-level highlights and national new construction trends, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/blog/new-construction-q2-2019.
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer's favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country's #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry's lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 90 major metro areas across the U.S. and Canada. The company has helped customers buy or sell homes worth more than $85 billion.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, subscribe here. To view Redfin's press center, click here.
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Released August 13, 2019